OPTIMAL SCENARIO OF THE NORTH CAUCASIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT

The optimal scenario that implies complete attainment of all the targets and actions specified in the Strategy is characterized by the following parameters:

  • Dynamic development of tourism
  • Significant reduction of productivity gap in the key economy sectors in the District
  • Advanced modernization of the social infrastructure (including education, health care, housing and communal utilities) to increase the quality of the human capital assets and the population living standards
  • Establishment of new economic development centers, overcoming of the depressed regions' development lag
  • Active integration into the national and global markets
  • Significant improvement of the investment environment (for foreign investors as well)
  • Advanced development of the District' transport system corresponding to the needs of the economy and population for high-quality transport services and infrastructure
  • Stabilization of socio-political and interethnic situation
Indicator, measuring unit 2025
1.
Region’s share in the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation, %
7,70
2.
Total industrial output growth rate, %
10,10

The implementation of the optimal scenario will cause the following changes of socio-economic indicators in the North Caucasian Federal District by 2025 (as compared to 2008):

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Gross regional product (GRP) per capita, RUR
79 000,00
219 000,00
2.
Average nominal accrued wage, thous. RUR
9 600,00
23 800,00
3.
Population with money incomes below subsistence level, in % of the total population of the North Caucasian Federal District
16,50
9,20
4.
Income of the consolidated budget per capita, RUR per capita
5 100,00
20 400,00
5.
Unemployment rate, %
16,00
5,00
6.
Share of manufacture, construction and tourism in economy structure, %
21,00
28,00
7.
Share of social sectors in economy structure, %
22,00
17,00

It is also proposed that the following indicators of living standards will be improved within the optimal scenario by 2025:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Provision of population with fixed telephone communication, subscribers
1 042 000,00
3 632 000,00
2.
Provision of population with housing, m2 per capita
17,10
24,40
3.
Provision of population with mobile telephone communication, subscribers
9 038 000,00
24 560 000,00
4.
Provision with hospital beds, beds per 10,000 inhabitants
79,00
81,00
5.
Ratio of outpatient clinics to population, number of visits per 10,000 inhabitants
174,00
207,00
6.
Ratio of doctors to population, employees per 10,000 inhabitants
41,00
44,00
7.
Ratio of paramedical personnel to population, employees per 10,000 inhabitants
87,00
94,00

Small and medium business development within the optimal scenario framework is characterized by the following:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Number of small and medium enterprises, enterprises per 1,000 inhabitants
3,40
17,00
2.
Employed at small and medium enterprises, employees
317 000,00
990 000,00
3.
Gross regional product (GRP) share of small and medium enterprises, %

 

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The implementation of the optimal scenario will also lead to the increase of energy demand in the District:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Energy demand, TWh
24,00
70,00