INERTIAL SCENARIO OF THE NORTH CAUCASIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT

In addition to macroeconomic conditions of the inertial variant of the Strategy of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation up to 2020, the inertial scenario is characterized by the following parameters:

  • Attainment of target values of all the federal target programs being implemented in the District
  • Establishment of a special economic touristic zone in the Stavropol Krai
  • Following the average national growth rates by all the key socio-economic indicators
  • Cancellation of implementation of new long-term priority projects and programs realizing comparative advantages of economy
  • Escalation of economic differentiation of population restraining modernization of social infrastructure
  • Decrease of technological competitive capacity of manufacture, and persisting outrunning growth of import
  • Unfavorable conditions of business climate for all types of enterprises, including small and medium ones
  • Decrease of the quality of the human capital assets
  • Further growth of ethnic tension, terroristic activity and religious and political extremism

Within the inertial scenario, the productivity gap of most of the industries in the region as compared to the leading foreign manufacturers will stay static or even start growing. This will keep up the District's economic structure or make it decline. At that rate the share of mechanic engineering and other high- and medium-tech industries in the economic structure will descend. In agriculture and mineral mining industry there will be no technical re-equipment and restructuring. The given industries will not be able to provide economy growth rates higher than the average ones in the country.

 

Implementation of the inertial scenario will cause the following changes of socio-economic indicators:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Region’s share in the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation, %
2,10
2,50
2.
Gross regional product growth rate, %

 

5,70
3.
Gross regional product (GRP) per capita, RUR
79 000,00
133 000,00
4.
Average nominal accrued wage, thous. RUR
9 600,00
14 000,00
5.
Income of the consolidated budget per capita, RUR per capita
5 100,00
14 600,00
6.
Unemployment rate, %
16,00
14,00
7.
Total industrial output growth rate, %

 

7,30

In case of the inertial scenario implementation, there will be no significant changes in the economy structure, life quality and small business development, but at the same time:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Population with money incomes below subsistence level, in % of the total population of the North Caucasian Federal District
16,50
12,60
2.
Provision of population with fixed telephone communication, subscribers
1 042 000,00
2 630 000,00
3.
Provision of population with mobile telephone communication, subscribers
9 038 000,00
17 785 000,00

The implementation of the inertial scenario will also lead to the increase of energy demand in the District:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Energy demand, TWh
24,00
43,00

To implement the inertial scenario it is preferred to increase by 2025 the indicator of the density of hard surface motor roads:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Density of public hard surface motor roads, km per 1,000 km2
277,60
292,60