BASELINE SCENARIO OF THE NORTH CAUCASIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT

The baseline scenario implies that the security provision problems can be solved within the next 5-10 years, and this will definitely slow down the development of tourism, that is one of the most attractive economy sectors, and constrain private investments inflow to other sectors. Under the given circumstances, the main attention will be paid to the development of agro-industrial, metallurgical and fuel and energy complexes, and chemical, oil-refining and engineering industries as well. The emphasis will be laid upon the improvement of the investment environment for major corporations, the development of infrastructure projects with the public financing prevalent, and implementation of large-scale programs of small and medium business support.

 

The key parameters of the baseline scenario are as follows:

  • Technological modernization and competitive growth of agro-industrial, metallurgical and fuel and energy complexes, and chemical and engineering industries
  • Implementation of transit potential of the District via the development of the existing transport infrastructure
  • Attainment of target values by all the federal target programs being implemented in the District
  • Development of the touristic cluster in the Stavropol Krai at the level of the planned indicators
  • Gradual reduction of the ethnic tension and terroristic activity with the further growth of investment appeal of the North Caucasian District regions
Indicator, measuring unit 2025
1.
Region’s share in the gross domestic product of the Russian Federation, %
6,70
2.
Total industrial output growth rate, %
8,70

The implementation of the baseline scenario will cause the following changes of socio-economic indicators in the North Caucasian Federal District regions by 2025 (as compared to 2008):

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Gross regional product (GRP) per capita, RUR
79 000,00
172 000,00
2.
Average nominal accrued wage, thous. RUR
9 600,00
186 000,00
3.
Population with money incomes below subsistence level, in % of the total population of the North Caucasian Federal District
16,50
10,90
4.
Income of the consolidated budget per capita, RUR per capita
5 100,00
175 000,00
5.
Unemployment rate, %
16,00
9,00

It is also proposed that the following indicators of living standards will be improved within the baseline scenario by 2025:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Provision of population with fixed telephone communication, subscribers
1 042 000,00
3 131 000,00
2.
Provision of population with housing, m2 per capita
17,10
20,00
3.
Provision of population with mobile telephone communication, subscribers
9 038 000,00
21 173 000,00
4.
Provision with hospital beds, beds per 10,000 inhabitants
79,00
80,00
5.
Ratio of outpatient clinics to population, number of visits per 10,000 inhabitants
174,00
200,00
6.
Ratio of doctors to population, employees per 10,000 inhabitants
41,00
43,00
7.
Ratio of paramedical personnel to population, employees per 10,000 inhabitants
87,00
90,00

Small and medium business development within the baseline scenario framework is characterized by the following:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Number of small and medium enterprises, enterprises per 1,000 inhabitants
3,40
17,00
2.
Employed at small and medium enterprises, employees
317 000,00
990 000,00
3.
Gross regional product (GRP) share of small and medium enterprises, %

 

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The implementation of the baseline scenario will also lead to the increase of energy demand in the District:

Indicator, measuring unit 2008 2025
1.
Energy demand, TWh
24,00
60,00